The latest report from National Bureau of Statistics showed that Nigeria’s economy grew by 3.84% in Q4 2024, marking the highest quarterly growth rate since Q4 2021. This growth was primarily driven by expansion in the non-oil sector, complemented by modest growth in the oil sector.

On an annual basis, real GDP expanded by 3.40% in 2024, slightly shy of our projected 3.48%. Nevertheless, in line with the trend observed in the quarterly data, the 2024 growth represents the highest expansion since 2021 (FY 2023: 2.74%; FY 2022: 3.10%; FY 2021: 3.40%). This underscores the economy’s resilience to absorb shocks and maintain upward momentum, as it navigated multifaceted challenges including inflationary pressures, currency volatility and elevated PMS prices in the year – which collectively weighed on economic activities.

Oil Sector

On the back of improved security measures to combat crude oil theft and pipeline vandalism, Nigeria’s average daily oil production stood at 1.54 mbpd in Q4 2024 as reported by NBS. While this marked an improvement from 1.47 mbpd in Q3 2024, it is below the 1.56mbpd reported in Q4 2023.

Despite this quarter-on-quarter oil production growth, the oil sector’s real GDP growth moderated to 1.48% in Q4 2024, down from 5.17% in Q3 2024, and 12.11% in Q4 2023.

Non-Oil Sector

The non-oil sector grew by 3.96% in Q4 2024, up from 3.37% in Q3 2024, and 3.07% in Q4 2023. Consequent to this, the sector’s contribution to total GDP rose to 95.40%, surpassing the 94.43% and 95.30% reported in Q3 2024 and Q4 2023, respectively.

The Services sector remained the primary growth catalyst driving the non-oil sector’s expansion through sustained quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year growth. The Agriculture sector also joined the higher growth parade on a quarter-on-quarter basis, however, its year-on-year performance was more subdued.

Meanwhile, the Industry sector lagged, reporting moderated growth on both a quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year basis.

Outlook

In January 2025, the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) and the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) held a workshop on GDP rebasing, to discuss the use of a base year to capture structural shifts and present a more accurate representation of the country’s economic activity. To replace the 2010 base year, the NBS chose 2019 as the base year for the 2025 rebasing, and this choice was underpinned by the relative economic stability and comprehensive data from the Nigerian Living Standards Survey conducted in 2019.

Additionally, the NBS plans to expand its coverage to entail new sectors. We expect the incorporation of these sectors will drive an upward revision in GDP starting from Q1 2025. This projection aligns with the trend observed following the rebasing in 2014 when nominal GDP surged by 89% to N80.22 trillion from N42.40 trillion.

Please follow the link “Q4 2024 GDP Report – Real GDP Momentum Sustained Despite Oil GDP Moderation” to view the whole report.