Global Market
Q3 2026 combined solid but uneven growth with a fresh energy-price shock. The war involving the US and Iran from late August lifted crude returned above $100 a barrel, which raised domestic prices in all three economies. The Federal Reserve and the ECB responded with rate increases, while China left policy untouched and continue to benefits from its export sector.
Domestic Economy
Nigeria’s economy strengthened further in Q2 2026 as real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 4.43% year-on-year (YoY), according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The performance was higher than the 4.23% recorded in Q2 2025 and represents an improvement from the 3.89% recorded in Q1 2026. This improvement was driven by stronger activity in non-oil sectors and supported a better performance from the oil sector. However, the growth remained uneven among sectors, as industrial-sector growth slowed significantly from 7.46% in Q2 2025 to 3.96% in Q2 2026.
Financial Markets
The Nigerian fixed income market experienced a gradual shift in yield expectations during the third quarter of 2026, as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) maintained a tight monetary policy stance in July and August before a significant rate cut in September.
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), at its most recent meeting on September 21st and 22nd, reduced the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by 350 basis points (3.50%) to 23.00% on the back of a persistent disinflationary environment and stronger external-sector fundamentals (balance of payments and growing external reserves).
Equities Market
The equities market continued its bullish run in the third quarter of 2026, although the pace of appreciation moderated from the 13.98% gain recorded in Q2 2026. The All-Share Index (ASI) advanced by 9.50% during the quarter and brought its year-to-date (YTD) return to 61.43%. This translated to a N15.89 trillion increase in market capitalisation, which rose to N163.10 trillion, while the ASI closed at 251,211.67 points as of September 30, 2026.
Please follow the link ‘’Q3 2026 Economic Outlook – Resilence Amid Energy Shock’’ to view the full report.
