Highlight
- Initial Public Offer (IPO) price: ₦525 per share, with 4.1 billion shares on offer, potentially raising approximately ₦2.15 trillion.
- IPO period: Subscription opens on 14 September 2026 and closes on 13 October 2026, with listing expected in November 2026.
- Market Capitalisation Pre-Listing: ₦63.07 trillion.
- Estimated fair value: ₦76.08 trillion (₦633.31 per share)
- Refining capacity: Current installed capacity of approximately 700,000 barrels per day, with plans to expand to 1.4 million barrels per day by 2030.
- Revenue: Forecast to increase from $27.4 billion (₦36.48 trillion) in FY2026F to $46.7 billion (₦62.11 trillion) by FY2030F.
- Profit after tax: Forecast to increase from $3.4 billion (₦4.57 trillion) in FY2026F to $6.6 billion (₦8.76 trillion) by FY2030F
Executive Summary
Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals FZE (“Dangote Refinery”) is one of the largest industrial investments in Nigeria, with a current refining capacity of approximately 700,000 barrels per day and plans to expand to 1.4 million barrels per day by 2030. The refinery has moved beyond its initial start-up challenges, with profitability improving significantly as production and capacity utilisation increase.
The proposed IPO offers 4.1 billion shares at ₦525 per share, with subscription scheduled to run from 14 September to 13 October 2026. The offer is expected to raise approximately ₦2.15 trillion, with the proceeds expected to support the refinery’s planned expansion alongside debt financing.
Our forecasts show positive growth in the business, with revenue expected to increase from $27.4 billion in FY2026F to $46.7 billion by FY2030F, while profit after tax is projected to rise from $3.4 billion to $6.6 billion. This growth is mainly driven by higher utilisation, increased production volumes and improved operating efficiency as the refinery matures. We value Dangote Refinery using a blended approach comprising DCF, EV/EBITDA and P/E. Our valuation produces an estimated fair value of ₦633.31 per share, representing approximately 21% potential upside to the ₦525 IPO price.
Please follow the link “Dangote Refinery – Initial Public Offer (IPO)” to view the whole report.
