Highlights

After two consecutive months of post-rebasing decline, inflation reversed course in March 2025, staging an unwelcome comeback that suggests additional strain within the Nigerian economy. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) places the year-on-year Headline Inflation at 24.23%, up from 23.18% in February 2025, representing a 1.05% surge. Even more striking, the month-on-month inflation rate nearly doubled, rising by 1.85% points from 2.04% to 3.90%

The primary driver of the monthly spike was Food Inflation, which climbed by 51 basis points to 2.18% in March, up from 1.67% in February. However, the Food Inflation narrative took an interesting twist, while prices rose on a month-on-month basis, the pace of year-on-year slowed, dropping to 21.79% (vs 23.51% in February).

Core Inflation (which excludes food and energy prices) reacted accordingly, with year-on-year figures climbing to 24.43% (vs 23.01% in February), while the month-on-month core inflation rose to 3.73% from 2.52%, a 1.21% percentage point increase.

Outlook

Inflationary pressure is expected to persist through April 2025, driven by a combination of domestic and external factors already taking shape by mid-month. Headline Inflation is expected to rise further in April, albeit slowly, both on a month-on-month and year-on-year basis.

Click here, “March 2025 -Festive Demands and Naira Slump Reverses Rebasing Declines”, to view the full report.