Highlights
Nigeria’s Headline inflation rate moderated for the fourth consecutive month, declining to 14.63% year-on-year (YoY) in September from 15.39% in August, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). This continued disinflationary trend comes amid persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and rising global energy prices. On a month-on-month (MoM) basis, headline inflation also eased significantly to 0.06% in September from 0.71% in August.
Outlook
We expect Nigeria’s disinflationary trend to persist in the near term, supported by seasonal improvements in food supply. However, the pace and sustainability of the moderation will largely depend on developments in food prices, exchange-rate movements and energy costs.
The outlook for food inflation has improved as the harvest season progresses and monthly food-price pressures ease. Increased availability of seasonal agricultural produce should continue to support lower food prices in the coming months, although transportation bottlenecks, distribution costs and potential supply disruptions could limit the extent of the decline.
Consequently, while seasonal food supply improvements should support further disinflation, elevated energy costs could moderate the pace of the decline in headline inflation. With all factors considered, WSTC Research’s view is to expect inflation to decline moderately in the short term.
Click here, “September 2026 – Harvest Supply Offsets Energy Pressures”, to view the full report.
