Highlights

Headline Inflation moderated marginally to 15.91% Year-on-year (YoY) in June 2026, from 15.93% recorded in May. On a month-on-month (MoM) basis, it also eased to 1.66%, from 1.75% in May. This shows that while prices continued to rise, the pace of increase slowed slightly in June. The moderation points to the continued impact of a stable exchange rate environment, which eased pressures on imported products, coupled with the decline in the global crude oil price during the month, which helped reduce pressures on energy-related products. (average Brent price: May: $102.78/barrel, June: $84.30/barrel).

Outlook

We expect Headline Inflation to remain on a gradual downward trend over the coming months, underpinned by a continued exchange rate stability environment and gradual improvement in domestic food supply ahead of the main harvest season. The recent moderation in core inflation also shows that underlying price pressures are becoming more contained, which should help sustain the disinflation trend if current macroeconomic conditions persist.

However, Food Inflation remains the key concern. Rising prices of fresh agricultural produce and protein items indicate that weather-related disruptions, logistics constraints, and seasonal supply shortages continue to affect food markets. Any shock pressure on the exchange rate or a sharp increase in energy and transportation costs could also slow the pace of disinflation. All other things being equal, Headline Inflation is expected to continue its downward trend in the coming months.

Click here, “June 2026 – Headline Inflation Eases Despite Higher Food Prices”, to view the full report.