Global Market

In Q1 2026, rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East between Iran, Israel, Lebanon and the United States led to a change in the equanimity the world had experienced prior to February 28, 2026. This geopolitical tension led to an increase in global oil prices, a major cause for this increase was due to concerns around the supply of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz.

These new energy prices played a key role in the increase in inflation across global economies. The partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20%-25% of the world’s global oil supply ships, led to the price of Crude oil increased by 47% Month-on-Month (MoM). Brent crude oil saw the average price of $66.83 per barrel between January and February escalate to $98.16 per barrel by the end of March.

Inflation increased in March across major global economies. In response, central banks, including the Federal Reserve, the People’s Bank of China, European Central Bank, kept interest rates unchanged.

Domestic Economy

The Nigerian economy gained further momentum in Q4 2025, with real GDP expanding by 4.07% year-on-year, an improvement from 3.98% recorded in Q3 2025. This stronger quarterly performance supported overall economic growth for the year, as GDP rose by 3.87% in FY 2025, up from 3.38% in FY 2024. The agricultural sector continued to be the largest contributor to GDP.

Financial Markets

The treasury bills market saw 8 auctions across Q1 2026, with a total offer of N7.95 trillion. The total bids from investors over the same period were N 24.93 trillion about 3.14x. The DMO allotted N8.22 trillion, which is above the planned issuance.

The 364-day bill tenor had the highest allotment, accounting for 85% (7.01 trillion) of the total allocation. Investors continue to favor longer dated maturities as they offer higher yields and are indicative of a normal yield curve environment.

The yield across the three tenors trended upwards from Q4 2025 to Q1 2026. The 91-day, 182-day and 364-day bill averaged 16.54%, 18.10% and 20.53%, respectively, compared to 15.89%, 16.84% and 20.07% in Q4 2025.

 Equities Market

The Nigerian Equities market delivered a positive performance in Q1, gaining 29.35%. January recorded gains of 6.27%, however the rally in Q1 was largely concentrated in February, which recorded 16.60%, representing the strongest monthly performance for the quarter. March saw a more moderate gain of 4.39% as profit activities tempered the earlier momentum.

Please follow the link ‘’ Q1 2026 Economic Outlook – Stability Amidst Geopolitical Tensions’’ to view the full report.